Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Jack Reacher: Never Go Back‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 28 – 30, 2016.
This weekend, Inferno opens in 3,576 locations.
#1 – Inferno
Our choice for the top spot this week is Inferno, which is the third installment in a series of films based on Dan Brown’s popular novels, starring Tom Hanks as Robert Langdon. The first movie in the franchise (The Da Vinci Code) was a massive hit, capitalizing on the phenomenon of the source material to the tune of $217.5 million domestically. However, the project was not very well-received, and word-of-mouth was an issue for the sequel Angels & Demons, which grossed $133.3 million in the U.S. That’s a considerable drop between entries, and doesn’t bode very well for Inferno‘s overall prospects. Early reviews have been very poor, and the film is fortunate it is the only wide release of the weekend. Many of this fall’s films haven’t been major hits, so Inferno doesn’t face much competition.
The one positive it has going for it is the presence of Tom Hanks, who remains a reliable box office draw well into his career. Hanks headlined September’s Sully, which is actually the highest-earning film of the season domestically at $120.9 million. It’s clear that moviegoers love watching him in anything, and a decent sized crowed should turn up for Inferno. Felicity Jones could also bring in some moviegoers, as her profile has steadily been on the rise since 2014’s The Theory of Everything. Projections have Inferno pegged for $24 million in its first three days, which would be a series low but enough to finish #1.
#2 – Boo! A Madea Halloween
Look for last week’s champ, Boo! A Madea Halloween, to fall to second in its second weekend. The latest installment of Tyler Perry’s popular Madea franchise brought in $28.5 million in its opening weekend, which is the third highest debut for the series. The timing for this movie couldn’t have been better, since Halloween is right around the corner. Moviegoers looking for a funny scare will probably still be inclined to check it out, even if the critical response wasn’t stellar. This is a property with a built-in audience and has a strong appeal.
#3 – Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
Coming in third should be Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (read our review), which disappointingly opened in second last week with $22.8 million. Though that was higher than the 2012 original, the action sequel could not overcome general audience apathy due to the mixed reviews and extended time (four years) between entries. Especially when compared to Ethan Hunt, Jack Reacher is not a Tom Cruise character that’s in high demand, meaning that business should take a bit of a hit now. Inferno is going after the same PG-13 thriller crowd.
#4 – Ouija: Origin of Evil
Our pick for fourth is Ouija: Origin of Evil (read our review), which managed only $14 million in its opening weekend. The horror sequel should be able to take advantage of the Halloween holiday, since fans of the genre will be looking for a good scare. Chances are, the positive reviews help Ouija 2 hold strong as well. Even though the film won’t be a crossover hit, it should still be able to post healthy numbers for at least another week.
#5 – The Accountant
Rounding out the top five should be The Accountant (read our review), which came in fourth last week with $13.6 million. The crime drama has received a decent response from casual audiences, though the critical response was far more mixed. With Inferno and Jack Reacher 2 still playing, The Accountant has an uphill climb. Ben Affleck gives the film a strong selling point, but since it hasn’t been a huge moneymaker early on in its run, it’s unlikely to turn things around now.
Last Week’s Recap
Next Week: Doctor Strange, Trolls, and more!